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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.80+7.25vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College1.48+6.33vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.55+1.31vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.30+4.74vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13+1.83vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island0.71+4.14vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College1.94-0.51vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston1.45-0.37vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.81-1.47vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.56-1.96vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.32-3.17vs Predicted
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12Harvard University1.90-6.27vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University0.55-2.09vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.37-2.72vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University1.37-7.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.25Brown University1.805.3%1st Place
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8.33Bowdoin College1.485.9%1st Place
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4.31Yale University2.5517.5%1st Place
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8.74Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.304.1%1st Place
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6.83Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.138.2%1st Place
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10.14University of Rhode Island0.713.2%1st Place
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6.49Dartmouth College1.949.1%1st Place
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7.63College of Charleston1.455.8%1st Place
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7.53Tufts University1.817.1%1st Place
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8.04University of Pennsylvania1.565.4%1st Place
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7.83George Washington University1.326.5%1st Place
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5.73Harvard University1.9011.5%1st Place
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10.91Northwestern University0.552.4%1st Place
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11.28Boston University0.372.6%1st Place
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7.95Georgetown University1.375.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaire McCarthy | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% |
| Emma Cowles | 17.5% | 17.8% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ella Withington | 4.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 5.8% |
| Dana Haig | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Megan Gimple | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 15.9% |
| Payton Thompson | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Grace Squires | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Talia Toland | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 2.1% |
| Amanda Majernik | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 2.6% |
| Sarah Burn | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Marina Hutzler | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 15.1% | 22.7% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 14.5% | 29.8% |
| Riley Kloc | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.