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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.56+6.93vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.55+2.09vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13+3.76vs Predicted
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4Harvard University1.90+1.92vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College1.94+1.48vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.32+1.97vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.81+0.58vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.80+0.21vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College1.48-0.74vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.30-1.21vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston1.45-3.47vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island0.71-1.86vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University0.55-2.27vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.37-2.68vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University1.37-6.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.93University of Pennsylvania1.566.9%1st Place
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4.09Yale University2.5520.3%1st Place
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6.76Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.139.1%1st Place
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5.92Harvard University1.909.6%1st Place
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6.48Dartmouth College1.948.8%1st Place
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7.97George Washington University1.325.9%1st Place
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7.58Tufts University1.816.0%1st Place
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8.21Brown University1.805.0%1st Place
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8.26Bowdoin College1.485.3%1st Place
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8.79Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.304.0%1st Place
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7.53College of Charleston1.456.3%1st Place
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10.14University of Rhode Island0.713.5%1st Place
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10.73Northwestern University0.552.5%1st Place
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11.32Boston University0.372.1%1st Place
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8.3Georgetown University1.374.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Majernik | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 3.6% |
| Emma Cowles | 20.3% | 17.2% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Dana Haig | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Sarah Burn | 9.6% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Payton Thompson | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.4% |
| Talia Toland | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 4.9% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% |
| Ella Withington | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% |
| Grace Squires | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| Megan Gimple | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 13.8% | 15.3% |
| Marina Hutzler | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 14.7% | 20.5% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 9.9% | 14.2% | 29.1% |
| Riley Kloc | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.