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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.32+7.02vs Predicted
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2Harvard University1.90+3.73vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.80+5.06vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.55+0.15vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.81+2.60vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College1.48+2.20vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.56+1.03vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College1.94-1.45vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.13-2.14vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.30-1.25vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University1.37-2.94vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University0.55-1.08vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.71-2.99vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.37-2.77vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston1.45-7.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.02George Washington University1.325.8%1st Place
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5.73Harvard University1.9010.3%1st Place
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8.06Brown University1.805.7%1st Place
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4.15Yale University2.5519.4%1st Place
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7.6Tufts University1.816.3%1st Place
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8.2Bowdoin College1.485.8%1st Place
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8.03University of Pennsylvania1.565.9%1st Place
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6.55Dartmouth College1.948.4%1st Place
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6.86Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.138.2%1st Place
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8.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.304.5%1st Place
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8.06Georgetown University1.375.3%1st Place
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10.92Northwestern University0.552.5%1st Place
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10.01University of Rhode Island0.713.8%1st Place
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11.23Boston University0.372.0%1st Place
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7.83College of Charleston1.456.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma AuBuchon | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% |
| Sarah Burn | 10.3% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 3.6% |
| Emma Cowles | 19.4% | 17.1% | 15.2% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Talia Toland | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Amanda Majernik | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 3.8% |
| Payton Thompson | 8.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Dana Haig | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Ella Withington | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 6.4% |
| Riley Kloc | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 4.2% |
| Marina Hutzler | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 23.8% |
| Megan Gimple | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 16.0% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 15.3% | 26.2% |
| Grace Squires | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 2.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.