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📊 Prediction Accuracy
13.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.55+2.99vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College1.94+4.20vs Predicted
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3Harvard University1.90+2.70vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University1.37+3.76vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston0.16+6.50vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.81+1.22vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island0.71+2.74vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.56-0.40vs Predicted
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92.13-2.53vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.32-2.36vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.80-2.98vs Predicted
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12Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.30-3.54vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College1.48-4.97vs Predicted
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14Boston University0.37-2.87vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.55-4.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.99Yale University2.5519.8%1st Place
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6.2Dartmouth College1.949.6%1st Place
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5.7Harvard University1.9010.4%1st Place
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7.76Georgetown University1.376.9%1st Place
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11.5College of Charleston0.161.8%1st Place
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7.22Tufts University1.817.0%1st Place
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9.74University of Rhode Island0.712.8%1st Place
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7.6University of Pennsylvania1.567.0%1st Place
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6.472.139.2%1st Place
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7.64George Washington University1.325.8%1st Place
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8.02Brown University1.805.7%1st Place
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8.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.304.6%1st Place
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8.03Bowdoin College1.485.5%1st Place
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11.13Boston University0.371.7%1st Place
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10.54Northwestern University0.552.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | 19.8% | 17.2% | 14.9% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Payton Thompson | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Sarah Burn | 10.4% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Riley Kloc | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Rowan Schanley | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 30.4% |
| Talia Toland | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Megan Gimple | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 10.6% |
| Amanda Majernik | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% |
| Dana Haig | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.5% |
| Ella Withington | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 3.2% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.2% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 16.5% | 22.8% |
| Marina Hutzler | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 15.9% | 16.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.