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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.55+3.01vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College1.48+6.13vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.56+4.66vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College1.94+2.16vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.30+3.37vs Predicted
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6Harvard University1.90-0.41vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.32+0.58vs Predicted
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82.13-1.24vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University1.37-1.17vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston0.16+1.53vs Predicted
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11Tufts University1.81-3.72vs Predicted
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12Brown University1.80-4.12vs Predicted
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13Boston University0.37-1.99vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island0.71-4.26vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.55-4.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.01Yale University2.5519.3%1st Place
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8.13Bowdoin College1.484.9%1st Place
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7.66University of Pennsylvania1.566.0%1st Place
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6.16Dartmouth College1.949.2%1st Place
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8.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.304.8%1st Place
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5.59Harvard University1.9012.4%1st Place
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7.58George Washington University1.326.3%1st Place
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6.762.137.5%1st Place
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7.83Georgetown University1.377.0%1st Place
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11.53College of Charleston0.162.4%1st Place
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7.28Tufts University1.816.7%1st Place
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7.88Brown University1.805.2%1st Place
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11.01Boston University0.372.2%1st Place
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9.74University of Rhode Island0.713.9%1st Place
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10.47Northwestern University0.552.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Cowles | 19.3% | 17.6% | 14.8% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ellie Maus | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% |
| Amanda Majernik | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.6% |
| Payton Thompson | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Ella Withington | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 3.6% |
| Sarah Burn | 12.4% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| Dana Haig | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Riley Kloc | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| Rowan Schanley | 2.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 15.9% | 27.8% |
| Talia Toland | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 15.3% | 23.9% |
| Megan Gimple | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 10.9% |
| Marina Hutzler | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 15.5% | 16.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.