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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.80+6.93vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.30+6.35vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.94+3.11vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.32+3.59vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.55-1.04vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.37+5.12vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.81+0.26vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College1.48-0.06vs Predicted
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9Harvard University1.90-3.40vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.56-2.24vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.55-0.44vs Predicted
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122.13-5.49vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island0.71-3.27vs Predicted
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14Georgetown University1.37-6.13vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston0.16-3.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.93Brown University1.805.5%1st Place
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8.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.304.6%1st Place
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6.11Dartmouth College1.9410.4%1st Place
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7.59George Washington University1.326.5%1st Place
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3.96Yale University2.5521.1%1st Place
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11.12Boston University0.372.4%1st Place
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7.26Tufts University1.817.2%1st Place
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7.94Bowdoin College1.484.8%1st Place
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5.6Harvard University1.9011.7%1st Place
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7.76University of Pennsylvania1.565.5%1st Place
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10.56Northwestern University0.553.0%1st Place
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6.512.137.3%1st Place
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9.73University of Rhode Island0.713.5%1st Place
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7.87Georgetown University1.375.4%1st Place
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11.7College of Charleston0.161.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaire McCarthy | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Ella Withington | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.7% |
| Payton Thompson | 10.4% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Emma Cowles | 21.1% | 18.4% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 15.8% | 24.1% |
| Talia Toland | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| Ellie Maus | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| Sarah Burn | 11.7% | 11.9% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Amanda Majernik | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| Marina Hutzler | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 15.2% | 16.9% |
| Dana Haig | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Megan Gimple | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.4% |
| Riley Kloc | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 2.1% |
| Rowan Schanley | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 11.8% | 16.2% | 29.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.