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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University1.90+4.58vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.55+2.03vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.30+5.49vs Predicted
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4George Washington University1.32+3.72vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College1.94+1.25vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.81+1.30vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston0.16+4.54vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.80-0.27vs Predicted
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9Boston University0.37+2.11vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island0.71-0.25vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.56-3.24vs Predicted
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122.13-5.44vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College1.48-5.01vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.55-3.58vs Predicted
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15Georgetown University1.37-7.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.58Harvard University1.9011.3%1st Place
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4.03Yale University2.5518.9%1st Place
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8.49Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.304.0%1st Place
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7.72George Washington University1.326.2%1st Place
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6.25Dartmouth College1.949.6%1st Place
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7.3Tufts University1.817.6%1st Place
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11.54College of Charleston0.162.1%1st Place
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7.73Brown University1.806.0%1st Place
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11.11Boston University0.372.2%1st Place
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9.75University of Rhode Island0.714.1%1st Place
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7.76University of Pennsylvania1.565.8%1st Place
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6.562.138.6%1st Place
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7.99Bowdoin College1.485.2%1st Place
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10.42Northwestern University0.552.5%1st Place
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7.77Georgetown University1.375.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Burn | 11.3% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Emma Cowles | 18.9% | 18.4% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ella Withington | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 4.8% |
| Emma AuBuchon | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Payton Thompson | 9.6% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Talia Toland | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Rowan Schanley | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 17.2% | 27.7% |
| Blaire McCarthy | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 2.8% |
| Lucy Paskoff | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 24.0% |
| Megan Gimple | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 10.8% |
| Amanda Majernik | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Dana Haig | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Ellie Maus | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.2% |
| Marina Hutzler | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 11.9% | 13.7% | 16.4% |
| Riley Kloc | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.