Race 12A

yale-women

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Emma Cowles 19.4% 17.2% 15.0% 13.6% 9.0% 8.3% 5.5% 4.3% 3.3% 1.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Blaire McCarthy 5.7% 5.9% 6.1% 6.5% 7.8% 7.1% 6.0% 7.5% 8.4% 7.5% 7.5% 7.8% 7.4% 5.6% 2.9%
Dana Haig 8.5% 8.0% 9.7% 8.6% 8.6% 8.1% 7.8% 8.3% 7.5% 5.8% 7.2% 5.1% 3.6% 2.2% 0.9%
Payton Thompson 10.0% 9.8% 8.5% 8.7% 9.2% 9.2% 8.1% 8.2% 7.1% 6.3% 5.9% 4.1% 2.6% 1.7% 0.4%
Emma AuBuchon 5.2% 7.0% 6.5% 5.9% 6.7% 7.5% 8.4% 7.6% 8.8% 7.8% 8.0% 8.2% 6.4% 3.6% 2.2%
Ella Withington 5.1% 5.8% 5.7% 5.8% 5.1% 5.9% 7.8% 7.4% 8.5% 8.0% 8.2% 8.2% 7.8% 6.8% 4.0%
Riley Kloc 5.5% 6.6% 6.8% 7.4% 7.3% 6.7% 7.3% 8.3% 7.2% 7.6% 7.1% 7.2% 6.7% 5.8% 2.5%
Marina Hutzler 2.8% 2.6% 3.3% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.2% 4.6% 5.7% 7.7% 7.0% 8.1% 11.8% 14.4% 16.3%
Amanda Majernik 6.3% 7.1% 6.0% 7.8% 7.5% 7.5% 8.5% 7.0% 7.0% 8.2% 8.3% 6.1% 6.2% 4.7% 1.7%
Rowan Schanley 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.9% 3.4% 3.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.9% 6.6% 7.4% 9.7% 15.2% 30.5%
Talia Toland 6.2% 6.2% 7.4% 7.6% 8.1% 8.7% 7.3% 8.1% 8.2% 7.9% 5.8% 7.0% 5.9% 4.3% 1.4%
Megan Gimple 3.2% 3.8% 3.0% 3.2% 3.5% 4.5% 5.9% 6.5% 6.8% 7.3% 7.4% 9.2% 11.5% 12.8% 11.2%
Ellie Maus 6.0% 5.8% 6.0% 5.7% 7.0% 6.6% 7.6% 6.7% 7.8% 7.5% 8.0% 9.2% 7.3% 5.5% 3.2%
Lucy Paskoff 2.2% 2.1% 2.5% 2.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 4.2% 4.1% 5.7% 6.5% 8.5% 11.2% 16.4% 22.8%
Sarah Burn 12.1% 10.4% 11.7% 10.4% 9.4% 8.8% 8.2% 7.0% 5.1% 5.8% 5.2% 3.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.