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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+8.41vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.71+1.89vs Predicted
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3Harvard University1.79+3.51vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.72+2.86vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.04+0.91vs Predicted
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6College of Charleston0.76+4.24vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University0.77+3.11vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College1.87-1.62vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.14-0.20vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University1.29-2.49vs Predicted
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11George Washington University0.96-1.78vs Predicted
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12Tufts University0.83-2.56vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island-0.02-0.61vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-7.02vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.07-8.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.41Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.972.9%1st Place
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3.89Yale University2.7121.1%1st Place
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6.51Harvard University1.798.1%1st Place
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6.86University of Pennsylvania1.727.8%1st Place
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5.91Brown University2.049.9%1st Place
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10.24College of Charleston0.762.8%1st Place
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10.11Northwestern University0.773.1%1st Place
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6.38Dartmouth College1.878.9%1st Place
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8.8Boston University1.143.7%1st Place
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7.51Georgetown University1.295.9%1st Place
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9.22George Washington University0.964.2%1st Place
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9.44Tufts University0.833.8%1st Place
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12.39University of Rhode Island-0.020.8%1st Place
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6.98Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.777.1%1st Place
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6.37Bowdoin College2.079.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 7.4% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 21.1% | 17.0% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marbella Marlo | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Torrey Chisari | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Fredrikke Foss | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 13.2% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 11.8% |
| Gray Hemans | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 4.8% |
| Morgan Sailer | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 7.2% |
| Alexandra Talbot | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 8.2% |
| Mackenzie Fraser | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 15.0% | 41.6% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.