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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+8.31vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.71+1.83vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.04+2.78vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island-0.02+8.35vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.07+1.53vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+0.76vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College1.87-0.76vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University0.77+2.15vs Predicted
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9Harvard University1.79-2.48vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.72-2.83vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.14-2.08vs Predicted
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12George Washington University0.96-2.77vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University1.29-5.45vs Predicted
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14Tufts University0.83-4.50vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston0.76-4.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.973.5%1st Place
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3.83Yale University2.7122.5%1st Place
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5.78Brown University2.0411.5%1st Place
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12.35University of Rhode Island-0.021.4%1st Place
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6.53Bowdoin College2.077.5%1st Place
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6.76Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.776.7%1st Place
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6.24Dartmouth College1.877.4%1st Place
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10.15Northwestern University0.773.6%1st Place
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6.52Harvard University1.798.2%1st Place
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7.17University of Pennsylvania1.726.6%1st Place
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8.92Boston University1.144.7%1st Place
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9.23George Washington University0.964.2%1st Place
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7.55Georgetown University1.295.8%1st Place
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9.5Tufts University0.833.9%1st Place
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10.16College of Charleston0.762.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heather Kerns | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 7.6% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 22.5% | 15.8% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 11.5% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Mackenzie Fraser | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 15.6% | 40.7% |
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Gray Hemans | 7.4% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 14.5% | 12.2% |
| Marbella Marlo | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Torrey Chisari | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 5.9% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 7.1% |
| Morgan Sailer | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Alexandra Talbot | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 8.1% |
| Fredrikke Foss | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 13.0% | 13.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.