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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.07+5.57vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.72+5.05vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.04+2.92vs Predicted
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4Harvard University1.79+2.44vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+1.70vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island-0.02+6.21vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College1.87-0.69vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.14+0.82vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.96+0.22vs Predicted
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10Yale University2.71-6.08vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University1.29-3.27vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University0.77-1.89vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston0.76-2.90vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97-4.65vs Predicted
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15Tufts University0.83-5.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.57Bowdoin College2.079.1%1st Place
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7.05University of Pennsylvania1.728.0%1st Place
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5.92Brown University2.049.2%1st Place
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6.44Harvard University1.799.8%1st Place
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6.7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.777.5%1st Place
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12.21University of Rhode Island-0.021.7%1st Place
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6.31Dartmouth College1.878.9%1st Place
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8.82Boston University1.144.5%1st Place
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9.22George Washington University0.963.4%1st Place
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3.92Yale University2.7119.4%1st Place
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7.73Georgetown University1.295.0%1st Place
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10.11Northwestern University0.772.2%1st Place
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10.1College of Charleston0.763.2%1st Place
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9.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.974.2%1st Place
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9.54Tufts University0.833.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth Kaplan | 9.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Torrey Chisari | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.3% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Marbella Marlo | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Mackenzie Fraser | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 14.2% | 41.3% |
| Gray Hemans | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 5.8% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 6.2% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 19.4% | 17.4% | 14.6% | 13.6% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Sailer | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 2.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 13.9% | 11.5% |
| Fredrikke Foss | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 12.4% |
| Heather Kerns | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 8.2% |
| Alexandra Talbot | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.