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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island-0.02+11.26vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.71+1.75vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.04+2.63vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.72+2.92vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.68+1.56vs Predicted
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6Harvard University1.79+0.19vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+2.46vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University1.29-0.66vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University0.77+1.06vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College1.87-3.74vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College0.78-2.60vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston0.76-1.87vs Predicted
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13George Washington University0.96-3.98vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.14-5.29vs Predicted
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15Tufts University0.83-5.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.26University of Rhode Island-0.021.2%1st Place
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3.75Yale University2.7122.4%1st Place
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5.63Brown University2.0411.5%1st Place
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6.92University of Pennsylvania1.727.9%1st Place
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6.56Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.687.9%1st Place
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6.19Harvard University1.799.7%1st Place
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9.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.972.9%1st Place
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7.34Georgetown University1.295.9%1st Place
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10.06Northwestern University0.772.2%1st Place
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6.26Dartmouth College1.878.6%1st Place
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8.4Bowdoin College0.785.0%1st Place
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10.13College of Charleston0.762.7%1st Place
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9.02George Washington University0.964.7%1st Place
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8.71Boston University1.144.0%1st Place
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9.3Tufts University0.833.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Fraser | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 14.9% | 40.7% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 22.4% | 18.5% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brielle Willoughby | 11.5% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Torrey Chisari | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Kaila Pfrang | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Marbella Marlo | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Heather Kerns | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 7.5% |
| Morgan Sailer | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Lillian Nemeth | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 10.9% |
| Gray Hemans | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Teagan Cunningham | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 3.9% |
| Fredrikke Foss | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 13.3% |
| Islay Van Dusen | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 6.2% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 5.1% |
| Alexandra Talbot | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 7.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.