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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University0.45+6.42vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.01+3.97vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College1.18+1.96vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.22+1.14vs Predicted
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5Bates College0.72+1.96vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University-0.79+5.00vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont0.87-1.84vs Predicted
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8Tufts University0.80-1.44vs Predicted
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9Tufts University0.80-2.69vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.51+0.37vs Predicted
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11Boston University0.25-1.76vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire-0.38-1.63vs Predicted
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13University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.02-4.49vs Predicted
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14Fairfield University0.42-6.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.42Harvard University0.456.0%1st Place
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5.97Brown University1.019.9%1st Place
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4.96Bowdoin College1.1813.6%1st Place
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5.14Northeastern University1.2212.5%1st Place
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6.96Bates College0.727.5%1st Place
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11.0Salve Regina University-0.791.5%1st Place
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5.16University of Vermont0.8713.5%1st Place
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6.56Tufts University0.807.8%1st Place
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6.31Tufts University0.808.7%1st Place
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10.37Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.512.2%1st Place
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9.24Boston University0.254.0%1st Place
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10.37University of New Hampshire-0.382.2%1st Place
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8.51University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.023.9%1st Place
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7.01Fairfield University0.426.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theresa Straw | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 2.5% |
| Sidney Moyer | 9.9% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Ethan Danielson | 13.6% | 13.4% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Eva Ermlich | 12.5% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jett Lindelof | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Sean Morrison | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 10.8% | 18.3% | 31.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 13.5% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Blake Vogel | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Grant Schmidt | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Evan Tofolo | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 16.9% | 20.8% |
| Richard Kalich | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 11.1% |
| Sean Lund | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 17.5% | 20.2% |
| William Delong | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.1% |
| Nolan Cooper | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.