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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Princeton University1.87+3.96vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.73+1.87vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.83+3.91vs Predicted
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4Rochester Institute of Technology1.06+1.66vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech0.72+0.85vs Predicted
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6Villanova University0.66+0.71vs Predicted
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7Syracuse University0.05+2.10vs Predicted
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8Unknown School-1.21+4.16vs Predicted
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9William and Mary0.12-0.81vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-0.52+2.14vs Predicted
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11Washington College1.66-6.70vs Predicted
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12University of Pittsburgh0.07-3.22vs Predicted
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13Drexel University-0.89-1.62vs Predicted
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14University of Delaware-1.82-0.26vs Predicted
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15University of Rochester-1.09-2.99vs Predicted
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16Catholic University of America-0.40-5.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.96Princeton University1.8713.6%1st Place
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3.87Webb Institute1.7318.6%1st Place
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6.91Christopher Newport University0.835.2%1st Place
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5.66Rochester Institute of Technology1.0610.2%1st Place
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5.85Virginia Tech0.728.5%1st Place
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6.71Villanova University0.667.0%1st Place
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9.1Syracuse University0.053.2%1st Place
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12.16Unknown School-1.211.2%1st Place
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8.19William and Mary0.124.5%1st Place
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12.14SUNY Stony Brook-0.521.2%1st Place
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4.3Washington College1.6617.0%1st Place
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8.78University of Pittsburgh0.073.4%1st Place
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11.38Drexel University-0.891.7%1st Place
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13.74University of Delaware-1.820.9%1st Place
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12.01University of Rochester-1.091.4%1st Place
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10.24Catholic University of America-0.402.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Mraz | 13.6% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 18.6% | 17.8% | 16.3% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Hodges | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Turner | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Magno | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Owen Ward | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Chris Trentham | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Clare Leeper | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 11.7% | 15.7% | 17.8% | 13.6% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Jonathan Gorman | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 15.3% | 15.6% | 14.8% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 17.0% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stanley Galloway | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Paula Cabot Jaume | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 8.8% |
| Tamryn Whyte | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 17.4% | 41.5% |
| Eric Elias | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 14.2% | 17.4% | 14.1% |
| Clare Wagner | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.