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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute0.39+5.14vs Predicted
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2Princeton University0.27+4.25vs Predicted
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3Virginia Tech1.14+0.86vs Predicted
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4William and Mary0.51+1.51vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.59+0.57vs Predicted
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6Washington College0.35+0.01vs Predicted
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7Catholic University of America-0.38+1.97vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook-0.58+1.12vs Predicted
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9University of Rochester-0.54+0.09vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University0.01-2.65vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy-1.15+0.17vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-0.44-3.04vs Predicted
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13University of Delaware-1.67-0.33vs Predicted
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14Unknown School-0.93-3.57vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-1.13-3.71vs Predicted
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16University of Pittsburgh-2.08-2.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.14Webb Institute0.399.4%1st Place
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6.25Princeton University0.279.6%1st Place
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3.86Virginia Tech1.1419.9%1st Place
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5.51William and Mary0.5110.5%1st Place
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5.57Christopher Newport University0.599.9%1st Place
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6.01Washington College0.3510.0%1st Place
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8.97Catholic University of America-0.384.5%1st Place
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9.12SUNY Stony Brook-0.583.5%1st Place
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9.09University of Rochester-0.544.3%1st Place
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7.35Syracuse University0.016.2%1st Place
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11.17U. S. Naval Academy-1.151.8%1st Place
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8.96Rochester Institute of Technology-0.443.9%1st Place
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12.67University of Delaware-1.671.2%1st Place
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10.43Unknown School-0.932.6%1st Place
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11.29Drexel University-1.131.9%1st Place
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13.6University of Pittsburgh-2.080.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Heilshorn | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Jasper Waldman | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 19.9% | 18.9% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 10.5% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Luke Hayes | 9.9% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Camden Ward | 10.0% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Alex Walters | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 2.4% |
| Ryan Magill | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Abby Eckert | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.4% |
| Shay Gualdoni | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Sawyer Barnard | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 11.1% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 9.8% |
| Ethan Hall | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 1.6% |
| Laura MacMillan | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 21.2% | 22.8% |
| Luke Plecinoga | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 6.5% |
| Yanni Tsetsekos | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 10.4% |
| Jason "Strongbones" Case | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 10.4% | 17.5% | 41.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.