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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College0.35+5.04vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.48+3.64vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute0.65+2.20vs Predicted
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4William and Mary0.51+1.44vs Predicted
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5Princeton University0.27+1.40vs Predicted
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6Catholic University of America-0.38+2.80vs Predicted
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7Virginia Tech1.14-3.18vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook-0.40+0.90vs Predicted
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9Rochester Institute of Technology-0.44-0.05vs Predicted
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10University of Delaware-1.67+2.51vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-1.30+0.46vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University0.01-4.80vs Predicted
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13University of Pittsburgh-2.08+0.55vs Predicted
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14Villanova University-1.01-3.43vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-1.13-3.83vs Predicted
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16Unknown School-0.93-5.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.04Washington College0.3510.0%1st Place
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5.64Christopher Newport University0.4810.2%1st Place
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5.2Webb Institute0.6511.7%1st Place
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5.44William and Mary0.5111.6%1st Place
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6.4Princeton University0.277.9%1st Place
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8.8Catholic University of America-0.383.5%1st Place
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3.82Virginia Tech1.1419.9%1st Place
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8.9SUNY Stony Brook-0.403.8%1st Place
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8.95Rochester Institute of Technology-0.443.8%1st Place
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12.51University of Delaware-1.671.5%1st Place
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11.46University of Rochester-1.302.4%1st Place
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7.2Syracuse University0.017.3%1st Place
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13.55University of Pittsburgh-2.080.8%1st Place
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10.57Villanova University-1.011.6%1st Place
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11.17Drexel University-1.131.9%1st Place
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10.37Unknown School-0.932.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camden Ward | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| David Grace | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Evan Spalding | 11.7% | 11.3% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Whisner | 11.6% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Waldman | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Alex Walters | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 19.9% | 19.7% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kristin Hess | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Ethan Hall | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
| Laura MacMillan | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 19.7% | 22.8% |
| Jordan Lawrence | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 10.7% |
| Shay Gualdoni | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Jason "Strongbones" Case | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 10.9% | 17.4% | 39.7% |
| Joe Cooner | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 6.5% |
| Yanni Tsetsekos | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 13.7% | 9.1% |
| Luke Plecinoga | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.