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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Virginia Tech1.14+2.75vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute0.65+3.20vs Predicted
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3Princeton University0.27+3.35vs Predicted
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4Washington College0.35+2.07vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.48+0.61vs Predicted
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6SUNY Stony Brook-0.40+2.87vs Predicted
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7William and Mary0.51-1.59vs Predicted
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8Catholic University of America-0.38+0.85vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University0.01-1.58vs Predicted
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10Unknown School-0.93+0.37vs Predicted
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11University of Delaware-1.67+1.48vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-0.44-3.18vs Predicted
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13University of Pittsburgh-2.08+0.42vs Predicted
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14University of Rochester-1.30-2.49vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-1.13-3.82vs Predicted
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16Villanova University-1.01-5.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.75Virginia Tech1.1420.0%1st Place
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5.2Webb Institute0.6512.2%1st Place
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6.35Princeton University0.279.0%1st Place
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6.07Washington College0.3510.2%1st Place
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5.61Christopher Newport University0.489.8%1st Place
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8.87SUNY Stony Brook-0.404.1%1st Place
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5.41William and Mary0.5112.4%1st Place
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8.85Catholic University of America-0.384.0%1st Place
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7.42Syracuse University0.015.5%1st Place
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10.37Unknown School-0.932.0%1st Place
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12.48University of Delaware-1.670.8%1st Place
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8.82Rochester Institute of Technology-0.443.5%1st Place
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13.42University of Pittsburgh-2.081.1%1st Place
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11.51University of Rochester-1.301.7%1st Place
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11.18Drexel University-1.131.4%1st Place
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10.7Villanova University-1.012.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reid Shanabrook | 20.0% | 19.0% | 15.8% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Evan Spalding | 12.2% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Waldman | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Camden Ward | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| David Grace | 9.8% | 10.9% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kristin Hess | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Nathan Whisner | 12.4% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Walters | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| Shay Gualdoni | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Luke Plecinoga | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 5.6% |
| Laura MacMillan | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 17.4% | 22.5% |
| Ethan Hall | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Jason "Strongbones" Case | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 11.4% | 18.4% | 38.0% |
| Jordan Lawrence | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 13.0% |
| Yanni Tsetsekos | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 9.2% |
| Joe Cooner | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.