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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+4.44vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California2.77+1.11vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13+4.86vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.87+1.38vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University1.59+1.12vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles1.48+0.33vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego1.38+0.66vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.68-2.07vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.00+3.15vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley0.73-0.37vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-0.76+3.88vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles0.32-1.64vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-0.42+0.76vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.14+2.88vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.45+3.05vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-0.08-3.86vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.39+0.21vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-1.59+0.43vs Predicted
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19California State University Channel Islands-1.50-1.15vs Predicted
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20University of California at Santa Cruz-0.97-4.24vs Predicted
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21California State University Channel Islands-1.06-4.82vs Predicted
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22California State University Monterey Bay0.03-7.90vs Predicted
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23Arizona State University-2.69-2.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.44University of California at Santa Barbara1.8510.9%1st Place
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3.11University of Southern California2.7728.1%1st Place
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7.86Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.135.2%1st Place
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5.38University of California at Santa Barbara1.8710.3%1st Place
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6.12San Diego State University1.597.8%1st Place
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6.33University of California at Los Angeles1.488.0%1st Place
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7.66University of California at San Diego1.385.5%1st Place
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5.93University of California at Santa Barbara1.689.2%1st Place
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12.15University of California at San Diego0.001.7%1st Place
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9.63University of California at Berkeley0.733.8%1st Place
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14.88University of California at Santa Cruz-0.760.9%1st Place
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10.36University of California at Los Angeles0.322.2%1st Place
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13.76University of California at San Diego-0.420.9%1st Place
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16.88Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.140.6%1st Place
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18.05Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.450.2%1st Place
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12.14University of California at Berkeley-0.081.4%1st Place
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17.21University of California at Los Angeles-1.390.7%1st Place
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18.43University of California at Davis-1.590.2%1st Place
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17.85California State University Channel Islands-1.500.4%1st Place
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15.76University of California at Santa Cruz-0.970.5%1st Place
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16.18California State University Channel Islands-1.060.5%1st Place
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14.1California State University Monterey Bay0.030.8%1st Place
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20.8Arizona State University-2.690.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kraak | 10.9% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Hou | 28.1% | 20.4% | 16.9% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kai Ponting | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jake Zieba | 10.3% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Buckner | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dorn | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Schuyler Capita | 9.2% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Bastuba | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kingsley Ehrich | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tristan Bellevin | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Ian Marshall | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Amanda Brooks | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Jack Kelly | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 4.5% |
| Jeffrey Romeo | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 10.5% |
| Luc LaMontagne | 1.4% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Deven Douglas | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 6.1% |
| Grace Chitouras | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 13.6% | 17.2% | 13.6% |
| Olivia Feito | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 13.7% | 10.5% |
| Savannah Hallgarth | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Kaylena Mann | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 2.8% |
| Caila Devlin | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Ciara Harding | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 47.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.