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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
22
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Davis-0.19+10.72vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.98+4.59vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego-0.51+10.41vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.74+3.51vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University0.29+4.54vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.22+3.94vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.98-0.70vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.94-1.37vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay-0.57+4.92vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-0.08+1.60vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.58+2.87vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.74-4.67vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.26-3.34vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles0.43-5.12vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-0.72-0.62vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.27-6.34vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz-0.83-2.39vs Predicted
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18Arizona State University-0.41-5.02vs Predicted
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19University of California at Davis-0.58-4.75vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-1.57-2.14vs Predicted
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21University of California at Davis-1.65-3.02vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-0.70-7.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.72University of California at Davis-0.193.6%1st Place
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6.59University of California at Berkeley0.989.8%1st Place
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13.41University of California at San Diego-0.512.3%1st Place
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7.51University of California at Berkeley0.748.0%1st Place
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9.54San Diego State University0.295.6%1st Place
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9.94University of California at San Diego0.224.5%1st Place
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6.3University of California at Berkeley0.9811.3%1st Place
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6.63University of California at Los Angeles0.949.4%1st Place
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13.92California State University Monterey Bay-0.572.6%1st Place
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11.6University of California at San Diego-0.084.0%1st Place
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13.87University of California at San Diego-0.581.9%1st Place
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7.33Arizona State University0.748.2%1st Place
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9.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.265.8%1st Place
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8.88University of California at Los Angeles0.435.9%1st Place
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14.38University of California at Los Angeles-0.721.7%1st Place
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9.66Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.275.8%1st Place
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14.61University of California at Santa Cruz-0.831.7%1st Place
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12.98Arizona State University-0.412.9%1st Place
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14.25University of California at Davis-0.581.7%1st Place
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17.86Arizona State University-1.570.7%1st Place
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17.98University of California at Davis-1.650.9%1st Place
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14.37University of California at San Diego-0.701.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Holden | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| Will Cornell | 9.8% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Keller | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 3.4% |
| Katherine Olsen | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ian Collignon | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Svenja Leonard | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Nate Ingebritson | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Wolf | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Sasha Wilson | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 4.2% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Sean Lipps | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| Aidan Boylan | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Florence Duff | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Zack Taylor | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| tess McMullin | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.1% |
| Samuel Groom | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Noam Elroi | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 6.8% |
| Mitchell Powers | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 2.5% |
| Jonah Brees | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.0% |
| Calum Merry | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 11.3% | 16.1% | 27.8% |
| Cooper Cook | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 14.9% | 31.4% |
| Audra Spokas-jaros | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.