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📊 Prediction Accuracy
39.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.67vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+2.10vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+2.01vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.68+3.76vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+2.90vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.38+2.33vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University-0.27+3.99vs Predicted
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8California State University Monterey Bay0.44-0.63vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.77+4.53vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz0.10-0.55vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles0.24-1.89vs Predicted
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12California State University Channel Islands-2.41+7.56vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-0.23-1.97vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-0.94+0.92vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-0.02vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-0.56-3.63vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.22-1.53vs Predicted
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18California State University Channel Islands-1.89-0.19vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95-4.45vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-1.99-1.82vs Predicted
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21University of California at Santa Cruz-1.40-4.92vs Predicted
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22University of California at Berkeley-0.71-9.41vs Predicted
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23Arizona State University-2.69-2.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.67University of California at Santa Barbara1.4415.8%1st Place
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4.1University of California at Santa Barbara1.7418.6%1st Place
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5.01University of California at Santa Barbara1.3513.0%1st Place
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7.76University of California at San Diego0.686.5%1st Place
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7.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.516.5%1st Place
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8.33University of Southern California0.385.1%1st Place
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10.99San Diego State University-0.272.7%1st Place
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7.37California State University Monterey Bay0.448.0%1st Place
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13.53University of California at Davis-0.772.0%1st Place
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9.45University of California at Santa Cruz0.104.2%1st Place
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9.11University of California at Los Angeles0.244.9%1st Place
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19.56California State University Channel Islands-2.410.4%1st Place
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11.03University of California at Los Angeles-0.232.7%1st Place
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14.92University of California at San Diego-0.940.8%1st Place
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14.98University of California at Los Angeles-1.091.1%1st Place
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12.37University of California at Berkeley-0.561.8%1st Place
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15.47Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.221.1%1st Place
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17.81California State University Channel Islands-1.890.2%1st Place
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14.55Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.951.2%1st Place
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18.18University of California at San Diego-1.990.7%1st Place
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16.08University of California at Santa Cruz-1.400.7%1st Place
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12.59University of California at Berkeley-0.711.8%1st Place
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20.26Arizona State University-2.690.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 15.8% | 14.3% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alexander | 18.6% | 16.4% | 16.0% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 13.0% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Gignac | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Liam Patrick | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Puts | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Jack Zemke | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Michael Schmitz | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 18.8% | 26.4% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| McKenna Roonan | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 1.5% |
| James Guiraud | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Chris Haugen | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 2.2% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 12.5% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 16.4% | 13.3% |
| Althea White | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 3.0% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Ciara Harding | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 11.3% | 18.8% | 37.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.