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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+3.20vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles0.24+7.32vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+2.23vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+0.78vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+3.29vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+5.60vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.68+0.98vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95+7.39vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.38-0.30vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-0.27+1.64vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.44-3.41vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.77+1.92vs Predicted
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13University of California at Irvine-0.27-1.31vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-0.56-0.93vs Predicted
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15University of California at Santa Cruz0.10-4.68vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego-0.94-0.54vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.22-0.92vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-2.31vs Predicted
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19University of California at Berkeley-0.71-5.87vs Predicted
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20University of California at Santa Cruz-1.40-3.21vs Predicted
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21University of California at San Diego-1.99-1.92vs Predicted
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22California State University Channel Islands-1.89-3.46vs Predicted
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23California State University Channel Islands-2.41-2.72vs Predicted
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24Arizona State University-2.69-2.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.2University of California at Santa Barbara1.7418.7%1st Place
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9.32University of California at Los Angeles0.244.5%1st Place
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5.23University of California at Santa Barbara1.3514.1%1st Place
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4.78University of California at Santa Barbara1.4416.0%1st Place
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8.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.9%1st Place
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11.6University of California at Los Angeles-0.232.1%1st Place
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7.98University of California at San Diego0.686.0%1st Place
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15.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.951.1%1st Place
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8.7University of Southern California0.385.0%1st Place
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11.64San Diego State University-0.272.6%1st Place
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7.59California State University Monterey Bay0.446.8%1st Place
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13.92University of California at Davis-0.771.6%1st Place
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11.69University of California at Irvine-0.272.4%1st Place
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13.07University of California at Berkeley-0.562.2%1st Place
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10.32University of California at Santa Cruz0.103.1%1st Place
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15.46University of California at San Diego-0.941.7%1st Place
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16.08Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.221.2%1st Place
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15.69University of California at Los Angeles-1.091.1%1st Place
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13.13University of California at Berkeley-0.711.7%1st Place
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16.79University of California at Santa Cruz-1.400.9%1st Place
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19.08University of California at San Diego-1.990.4%1st Place
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18.54California State University Channel Islands-1.890.5%1st Place
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20.28California State University Channel Islands-2.410.1%1st Place
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21.22Arizona State University-2.690.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alexander | 18.7% | 16.7% | 15.7% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 14.1% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 16.0% | 14.0% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Casey Gignac | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Liam Patrick | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Puts | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Anthony Drabeck | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Guiraud | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Jack Zemke | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| McKenna Roonan | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Chris Haugen | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.2% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Althea White | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 3.8% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 14.5% | 16.4% | 12.5% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 9.6% |
| Michael Schmitz | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 18.2% | 27.0% |
| Ciara Harding | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 11.1% | 19.1% | 37.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.