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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.59vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego-0.94+12.80vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+1.93vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+0.18vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.38+3.61vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.68+1.55vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+1.10vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.24+1.29vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.10+0.89vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-0.27+1.04vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz-1.40+5.10vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95+2.89vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay0.44-5.72vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-0.71-1.49vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.22+0.70vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-0.56-3.28vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-0.23-6.00vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-0.77-4.54vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.99-0.75vs Predicted
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20California State University Channel Islands-1.89-2.17vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-6.17vs Predicted
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22California State University Channel Islands-2.41-2.36vs Predicted
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23Arizona State University-2.09-4.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.59University of California at Santa Barbara1.4416.5%1st Place
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14.8University of California at San Diego-0.941.4%1st Place
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4.93University of California at Santa Barbara1.3514.1%1st Place
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4.18University of California at Santa Barbara1.7416.9%1st Place
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8.61University of Southern California0.384.9%1st Place
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7.55University of California at San Diego0.685.6%1st Place
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8.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.9%1st Place
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9.29University of California at Los Angeles0.244.5%1st Place
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9.89University of California at Santa Cruz0.104.3%1st Place
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11.04San Diego State University-0.272.9%1st Place
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16.1University of California at Santa Cruz-1.401.0%1st Place
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14.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.951.1%1st Place
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7.28California State University Monterey Bay0.447.4%1st Place
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12.51University of California at Berkeley-0.712.1%1st Place
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15.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.220.8%1st Place
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12.72University of California at Berkeley-0.562.0%1st Place
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11.0University of California at Los Angeles-0.233.9%1st Place
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13.46University of California at Davis-0.771.8%1st Place
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18.25University of California at San Diego-1.990.6%1st Place
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17.83California State University Channel Islands-1.890.6%1st Place
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14.83University of California at Los Angeles-1.091.4%1st Place
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19.64California State University Channel Islands-2.410.4%1st Place
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18.8Arizona State University-2.090.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 16.5% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| McKenna Roonan | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.3% |
| Jasper Reid | 14.1% | 14.0% | 12.6% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alexander | 16.9% | 17.6% | 15.4% | 12.7% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Zemke | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Gignac | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Althea White | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 5.3% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| Liam Patrick | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Chris Haugen | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 3.4% |
| James Guiraud | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Puts | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 11.8% | 17.3% | 16.4% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 14.1% | 12.6% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.8% |
| Michael Schmitz | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 17.5% | 31.9% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 15.0% | 21.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.