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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
24
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+3.29vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+2.91vs Predicted
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3San Diego State University-0.27+8.71vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+1.15vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.38+3.73vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+2.19vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.68+0.67vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles0.24+1.26vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+2.46vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.56+3.07vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.94+4.35vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay0.44-4.41vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.10-2.87vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.99+5.29vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.22+1.25vs Predicted
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16University of California at Irvine-0.74-2.32vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95-1.73vs Predicted
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18University of California at Davis-0.77-3.79vs Predicted
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19California State University Channel Islands-1.89-0.18vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-2.09-0.50vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-5.78vs Predicted
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22University of California at Santa Cruz-1.40-5.28vs Predicted
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23University of California at Berkeley-0.71-10.00vs Predicted
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24California State University Channel Islands-2.41-3.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.29University of California at Santa Barbara1.7419.4%1st Place
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4.91University of California at Santa Barbara1.4414.2%1st Place
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11.71San Diego State University-0.273.0%1st Place
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5.15University of California at Santa Barbara1.3513.6%1st Place
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8.73University of Southern California0.385.1%1st Place
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8.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.516.3%1st Place
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7.67University of California at San Diego0.686.3%1st Place
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9.26University of California at Los Angeles0.244.9%1st Place
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11.46University of California at Los Angeles-0.232.6%1st Place
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13.07University of California at Berkeley-0.561.5%1st Place
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15.35University of California at San Diego-0.940.9%1st Place
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7.59California State University Monterey Bay0.446.5%1st Place
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10.13University of California at Santa Cruz0.104.2%1st Place
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19.29University of California at San Diego-1.990.4%1st Place
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16.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.221.1%1st Place
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13.68University of California at Irvine-0.741.8%1st Place
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15.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.950.9%1st Place
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14.21University of California at Davis-0.771.8%1st Place
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18.82California State University Channel Islands-1.890.4%1st Place
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19.5Arizona State University-2.090.6%1st Place
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15.22University of California at Los Angeles-1.091.1%1st Place
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16.72University of California at Santa Cruz-1.400.8%1st Place
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13.0University of California at Berkeley-0.711.9%1st Place
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20.53California State University Channel Islands-2.410.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alexander | 19.4% | 15.5% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 14.2% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Gignac | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jasper Reid | 13.6% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| James Guiraud | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| McKenna Roonan | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Liam Patrick | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Zemke | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 17.5% | 17.3% |
| Chris Haugen | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 5.5% | 3.4% |
| Parker Kulavic | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Macy Rowe | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| Sarah Puts | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 14.3% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 17.0% | 20.8% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| Althea White | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 5.2% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Michael Schmitz | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 17.0% | 31.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.