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📊 Prediction Accuracy
39.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+3.59vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+2.04vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego0.68+4.79vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+0.94vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.38+3.40vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz-1.40+10.31vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+0.96vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+3.10vs Predicted
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9University of California at Davis-0.77+4.95vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles0.24-0.97vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University-0.27+0.04vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz0.10-2.52vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.22+2.42vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.09+0.92vs Predicted
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15University of California at Berkeley-0.56-2.49vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95-1.27vs Predicted
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17California State University Channel Islands-1.89+0.87vs Predicted
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18California State University Monterey Bay0.44-10.68vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University-2.09-0.16vs Predicted
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20University of California at San Diego-1.18-4.68vs Predicted
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21California State University Channel Islands-2.41-1.44vs Predicted
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22University of California at Berkeley-0.71-9.42vs Predicted
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23University of California at San Diego-1.99-4.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.59University of California at Santa Barbara1.4416.6%1st Place
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4.04University of California at Santa Barbara1.7419.6%1st Place
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7.79University of California at San Diego0.685.6%1st Place
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4.94University of California at Santa Barbara1.3513.2%1st Place
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8.4University of Southern California0.386.3%1st Place
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16.31University of California at Santa Cruz-1.400.7%1st Place
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7.96Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.5%1st Place
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11.1University of California at Los Angeles-0.233.0%1st Place
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13.95University of California at Davis-0.772.1%1st Place
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9.03University of California at Los Angeles0.243.4%1st Place
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11.04San Diego State University-0.273.2%1st Place
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9.48University of California at Santa Cruz0.104.3%1st Place
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15.42Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.221.1%1st Place
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14.92University of California at Los Angeles-1.091.0%1st Place
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12.51University of California at Berkeley-0.561.8%1st Place
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14.73Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.951.0%1st Place
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17.87California State University Channel Islands-1.890.5%1st Place
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7.32California State University Monterey Bay0.446.9%1st Place
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18.84Arizona State University-2.090.5%1st Place
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15.32University of California at San Diego-1.180.8%1st Place
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19.56California State University Channel Islands-2.410.4%1st Place
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12.58University of California at Berkeley-0.712.1%1st Place
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18.28University of California at San Diego-1.990.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted McDonough | 16.6% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alexander | 19.6% | 17.5% | 14.1% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 13.2% | 12.8% | 13.8% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Althea White | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 5.1% |
| Max Case | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Sarah Puts | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Casey Gignac | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack Zemke | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Chris Haugen | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| James Guiraud | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 14.1% |
| Liam Patrick | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 17.8% | 20.6% |
| Megan Saenz | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 2.5% |
| Michael Schmitz | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 17.7% | 30.6% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 15.6% | 18.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.