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📊 Prediction Accuracy
39.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+3.14vs Predicted
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2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+5.94vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+1.63vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+1.00vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.68+2.71vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.24+3.12vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.38+1.31vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+3.13vs Predicted
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9California State University Monterey Bay0.44-1.85vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-0.56+2.44vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University-0.27+0.12vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.71+0.66vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.10-3.24vs Predicted
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14University of California at Santa Cruz-1.40+2.21vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-0.77-1.49vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.22-0.55vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-1.99+1.43vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-3.06vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.18-3.72vs Predicted
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20Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95-5.11vs Predicted
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21Arizona State University-2.09-2.46vs Predicted
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22California State University Channel Islands-1.89-4.14vs Predicted
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23California State University Channel Islands-2.41-3.24vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.14University of California at Santa Barbara1.7418.8%1st Place
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7.94Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.516.0%1st Place
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4.63University of California at Santa Barbara1.4416.2%1st Place
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5.0University of California at Santa Barbara1.3514.5%1st Place
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7.71University of California at San Diego0.686.3%1st Place
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9.12University of California at Los Angeles0.244.6%1st Place
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8.31University of Southern California0.384.3%1st Place
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11.13University of California at Los Angeles-0.233.0%1st Place
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7.15California State University Monterey Bay0.447.0%1st Place
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12.44University of California at Berkeley-0.561.8%1st Place
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11.12San Diego State University-0.272.2%1st Place
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12.66University of California at Berkeley-0.712.7%1st Place
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9.76University of California at Santa Cruz0.103.9%1st Place
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16.21University of California at Santa Cruz-1.400.9%1st Place
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13.51University of California at Davis-0.771.4%1st Place
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15.45Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.220.8%1st Place
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18.43University of California at San Diego-1.990.4%1st Place
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14.94University of California at Los Angeles-1.091.1%1st Place
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15.28University of California at San Diego-1.181.1%1st Place
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14.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.951.1%1st Place
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18.54Arizona State University-2.090.6%1st Place
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17.86California State University Channel Islands-1.890.8%1st Place
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19.76California State University Channel Islands-2.410.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alexander | 18.8% | 16.1% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Case | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 16.2% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 12.3% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 14.5% | 14.0% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Edward Ansart | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Liam Patrick | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Guiraud | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Casey Gignac | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Jack Zemke | 3.9% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Althea White | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 5.0% |
| Sarah Puts | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Chris Haugen | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 2.9% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 13.2% | 16.0% | 17.8% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Megan Saenz | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 1.8% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 17.4% | 19.2% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 14.4% | 13.2% |
| Michael Schmitz | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 16.6% | 32.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.