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📊 Prediction Accuracy
34.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
23
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.74+3.10vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.44+2.63vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.35+2.03vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles0.24+4.95vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University-2.09+13.62vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University-0.27+5.01vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+1.16vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.68-0.34vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles-0.23+2.27vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California0.38-1.56vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Cruz0.10-1.33vs Predicted
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12University of California at Davis-0.77+1.69vs Predicted
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13California State University Monterey Bay0.44-5.64vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley-0.56-1.50vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.18+0.11vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley-0.71-3.51vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Cruz-1.40-0.72vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.22-2.56vs Predicted
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19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.95-4.26vs Predicted
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20University of California at Los Angeles-1.09-4.92vs Predicted
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21California State University Channel Islands-1.89-2.95vs Predicted
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22University of California at San Diego-1.99-3.83vs Predicted
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23California State University Channel Islands-2.41-3.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.1University of California at Santa Barbara1.7419.4%1st Place
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4.63University of California at Santa Barbara1.4415.6%1st Place
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5.03University of California at Santa Barbara1.3515.4%1st Place
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8.95University of California at Los Angeles0.244.7%1st Place
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18.62Arizona State University-2.090.7%1st Place
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11.01San Diego State University-0.273.1%1st Place
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8.16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.515.2%1st Place
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7.66University of California at San Diego0.686.4%1st Place
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11.27University of California at Los Angeles-0.232.4%1st Place
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8.44University of Southern California0.385.2%1st Place
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9.67University of California at Santa Cruz0.103.1%1st Place
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13.69University of California at Davis-0.771.7%1st Place
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7.36California State University Monterey Bay0.446.8%1st Place
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12.5University of California at Berkeley-0.561.8%1st Place
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15.11University of California at San Diego-1.181.1%1st Place
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12.49University of California at Berkeley-0.711.7%1st Place
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16.28University of California at Santa Cruz-1.400.8%1st Place
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15.44Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.220.8%1st Place
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14.74Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.951.5%1st Place
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15.08University of California at Los Angeles-1.091.2%1st Place
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18.05California State University Channel Islands-1.890.4%1st Place
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18.17University of California at San Diego-1.990.7%1st Place
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19.54California State University Channel Islands-2.410.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alexander | 19.4% | 16.2% | 14.1% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 15.6% | 14.1% | 14.6% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Reid | 15.4% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Jane Howland | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 17.8% | 19.8% |
| Casey Gignac | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Max Case | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Matiyevsky | 2.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Edward Ansart | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Zemke | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Puts | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Liam Patrick | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Guiraud | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Megan Saenz | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% |
| Sophia Zaleski | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Althea White | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 5.2% |
| Chris Haugen | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 2.8% |
| Macy Rowe | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Xinyu Zhou | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.4% |
| Michael Boyd | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 15.5% | 13.2% |
| Jessica Dally | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 17.3% |
| Michael Schmitz | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 11.2% | 16.5% | 32.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.