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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+6.73vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.30+8.90vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.01+4.88vs Predicted
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4Yale University4.10-0.11vs Predicted
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5Cornell University2.04+6.59vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island3.02+1.63vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+2.35vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University2.87+0.16vs Predicted
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9George Washington University2.51+0.70vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.72+3.14vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.21-4.08vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.33-1.16vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University2.09-1.67vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy2.33-3.89vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.56-5.51vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45-5.97vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston2.60-7.47vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College1.73-5.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.73St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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10.9Tufts University2.300.0%1st Place
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7.88Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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3.89Yale University4.100.2%1st Place
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11.59Cornell University2.040.0%1st Place
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7.63University of Rhode Island3.020.1%1st Place
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9.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.1%1st Place
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8.16Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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9.7George Washington University2.510.0%1st Place
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13.14Fordham University1.720.0%1st Place
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6.92Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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10.84Georgetown University2.330.0%1st Place
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11.33Roger Williams University2.090.0%1st Place
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10.11U. S. Naval Academy2.330.0%1st Place
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9.49Bowdoin College2.560.0%1st Place
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10.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.0%1st Place
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9.53College of Charleston2.600.1%1st Place
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12.77Connecticut College1.730.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolyn Smith | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Kate Levinson | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Morgan Kiss | 21.0% | 20.3% | 15.0% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lindsey Ludwig | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 12.0% |
| Chanel Miller | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| Kayla Ellis | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% |
| Corina Radtke | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| Maria Sinagra | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% |
| Johanna Monro | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 22.5% |
| Sarah Williams | 10.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Merritt Moran | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% |
| Rachel Perry | 3.7% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 9.3% |
| Hannah Hughes | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 4.8% |
| Courtney Koos | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.0% |
| Brooke Lyon | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% |
| Rebekah Schiff | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.1% |
| Rebecca Quirke | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 17.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.