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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.10+3.16vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.33+8.88vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.02+4.97vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston2.60+5.33vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.71+3.90vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61+3.41vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.51+2.85vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.09+3.46vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.30+1.75vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.73+3.21vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-3.31vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College3.21-4.71vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.04-1.35vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45-4.27vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.72-2.01vs Predicted
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16Brown University3.01-8.18vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University2.87-8.49vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.56-8.60vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.16Yale University4.100.2%1st Place
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10.88Georgetown University2.330.0%1st Place
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7.97University of Rhode Island3.020.1%1st Place
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9.33College of Charleston2.600.1%1st Place
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8.9U. S. Naval Academy2.710.1%1st Place
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9.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.1%1st Place
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9.85George Washington University2.510.1%1st Place
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11.46Roger Williams University2.090.0%1st Place
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10.75Tufts University2.300.0%1st Place
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13.21Connecticut College1.730.0%1st Place
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7.69St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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7.29Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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11.65Cornell University2.040.0%1st Place
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9.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.0%1st Place
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12.99Fordham University1.720.0%1st Place
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7.82Brown University3.010.1%1st Place
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8.51Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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9.4Bowdoin College2.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Kiss | 20.1% | 19.2% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Merritt Moran | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% |
| Chanel Miller | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Rebekah Schiff | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 4.0% |
| Killian Corbishley | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.0% |
| Kayla Ellis | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 4.0% |
| Maria Sinagra | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.3% |
| Rachel Perry | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% |
| Kate Levinson | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% |
| Rebecca Quirke | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 14.8% | 21.9% |
| Carolyn Smith | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Sarah Williams | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Lindsey Ludwig | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 10.8% |
| Brooke Lyon | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 3.6% |
| Johanna Monro | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 21.4% |
| Johanna Kincaid | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| Corina Radtke | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Courtney Koos | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.