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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College1.92+9.80vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.92+5.33vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.41+5.45vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.15+7.88vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31+3.81vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.45+2.48vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.90+3.47vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.97+2.86vs Predicted
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9Brown University2.40+2.13vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.14+0.56vs Predicted
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11University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-1.18vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.75-4.72vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00-1.34vs Predicted
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14Tulane University1.77-3.22vs Predicted
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15George Washington University2.13-5.40vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-8.59vs Predicted
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17Stanford University2.55-9.30vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-10.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.8Connecticut College1.924.4%1st Place
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7.33Yale University2.928.9%1st Place
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8.45Georgetown University2.415.4%1st Place
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11.88Tufts University2.152.9%1st Place
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8.81Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.2%1st Place
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8.48Roger Williams University2.456.2%1st Place
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10.47University of Pennsylvania1.903.9%1st Place
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10.86U. S. Naval Academy1.974.4%1st Place
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11.13Brown University2.403.4%1st Place
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10.56Boston College2.144.2%1st Place
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9.82University of California at Santa Barbara2.044.8%1st Place
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7.28Dartmouth College2.758.8%1st Place
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11.66Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.003.0%1st Place
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10.78Tulane University1.774.0%1st Place
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9.6George Washington University2.135.3%1st Place
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7.41U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.488.3%1st Place
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7.7Stanford University2.558.7%1st Place
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7.98St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Mckenna | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Scott Mais | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 14.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.5% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| Javier Garcon | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% |
| Gray Benson | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% |
| Jack Murphy | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 10.3% |
| Robert Hunter | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Charles Carraway | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 13.4% |
| Asher Zittrer | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% |
| Cameron Feves | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.3% |
| Colman Schofield | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Wiley Rogers | 8.7% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.