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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.45+7.38vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.40+8.96vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.97+8.23vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.61+3.36vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.75+2.22vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48+1.35vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.90+3.56vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.15+3.80vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.92+1.85vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-1.26vs Predicted
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11Yale University2.92-3.68vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.41-3.79vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-3.31vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00-2.37vs Predicted
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15Tulane University2.21-3.27vs Predicted
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16George Washington University2.13-6.40vs Predicted
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17St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-8.88vs Predicted
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18Boston College2.14-7.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.38Roger Williams University2.456.9%1st Place
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10.96Brown University2.403.4%1st Place
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11.23U. S. Naval Academy1.973.2%1st Place
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7.36Stanford University2.618.6%1st Place
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7.22Dartmouth College2.758.1%1st Place
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7.35U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.489.3%1st Place
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10.56University of Pennsylvania1.904.7%1st Place
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11.8Tufts University2.152.8%1st Place
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10.85Connecticut College1.923.5%1st Place
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8.74Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.6%1st Place
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7.32Yale University2.928.9%1st Place
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8.21Georgetown University2.416.9%1st Place
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9.69University of California at Santa Barbara2.045.1%1st Place
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11.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.003.1%1st Place
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11.73Tulane University2.213.4%1st Place
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9.6George Washington University2.134.9%1st Place
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8.12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.576.5%1st Place
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10.24Boston College2.144.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Jack Murphy | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Gray Benson | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.8% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Colman Schofield | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 11.2% | 14.3% |
| CJ Mckenna | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.3% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Scott Mais | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 13.5% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 13.0% |
| Cameron Feves | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% |
| Robert Hunter | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.