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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.40+10.18vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.41+6.28vs Predicted
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3Tulane University2.21+8.32vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.97+6.84vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara2.04+4.54vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.92+1.32vs Predicted
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7Stanford University2.61+0.35vs Predicted
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8U. S. Military Academy2.05+1.74vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-1.69vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-1.48vs Predicted
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11Tufts University2.15+0.71vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.95-1.86vs Predicted
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13University of Pennsylvania1.90-2.47vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University2.45-5.64vs Predicted
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15St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-7.03vs Predicted
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16Boston College2.14-5.83vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.13-7.72vs Predicted
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18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00-6.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.18Brown University2.403.2%1st Place
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8.28Georgetown University2.417.3%1st Place
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11.32Tulane University2.213.3%1st Place
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10.84U. S. Naval Academy1.973.9%1st Place
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9.54University of California at Santa Barbara2.044.2%1st Place
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7.32Yale University2.928.2%1st Place
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7.35Stanford University2.619.2%1st Place
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9.74U. S. Military Academy2.055.2%1st Place
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7.31U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.489.2%1st Place
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8.52Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.4%1st Place
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11.71Tufts University2.152.8%1st Place
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10.14Connecticut College1.954.9%1st Place
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10.53University of Pennsylvania1.904.5%1st Place
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8.36Roger Williams University2.456.5%1st Place
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7.97St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.4%1st Place
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10.17Boston College2.143.7%1st Place
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9.28George Washington University2.136.0%1st Place
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11.44Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.002.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Murphy | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 12.3% |
| Scott Mais | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.1% |
| Gray Benson | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.7% | 9.3% |
| Chris Kayda | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| James Paul | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.8% |
| Colman Schofield | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 13.7% |
| Walter Henry | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| Robert Hunter | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% |
| Cameron Feves | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.6% |
| Charles Carraway | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 10.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.