← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+6.88vs Predicted
-
2Dartmouth College2.75+5.26vs Predicted
-
3Tulane University2.21+8.34vs Predicted
-
4Roger Williams University2.45+4.39vs Predicted
-
5George Washington University2.19+4.56vs Predicted
-
6University of Pennsylvania1.90+4.44vs Predicted
-
7Yale University2.92+0.18vs Predicted
-
8Stanford University2.61-0.68vs Predicted
-
9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-0.21vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Naval Academy1.97+1.00vs Predicted
-
11Georgetown University2.41-2.70vs Predicted
-
12Connecticut College1.37+0.79vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.48-5.80vs Predicted
-
14University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-4.49vs Predicted
-
15Brown University2.40-4.00vs Predicted
-
16Boston College2.14-5.79vs Predicted
-
17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00-5.49vs Predicted
-
18Tufts University2.15-6.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.88St. Mary's College of Maryland2.577.5%1st Place
-
7.26Dartmouth College2.759.0%1st Place
-
11.34Tulane University2.213.6%1st Place
-
8.39Roger Williams University2.456.8%1st Place
-
9.56George Washington University2.194.3%1st Place
-
10.44University of Pennsylvania1.904.1%1st Place
-
7.18Yale University2.928.8%1st Place
-
7.32Stanford University2.618.7%1st Place
-
8.79Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.316.3%1st Place
-
11.0U. S. Naval Academy1.973.0%1st Place
-
8.3Georgetown University2.416.8%1st Place
-
12.79Connecticut College1.372.1%1st Place
-
7.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.489.0%1st Place
-
9.51University of California at Santa Barbara2.045.7%1st Place
-
11.0Brown University2.403.6%1st Place
-
10.21Boston College2.143.9%1st Place
-
11.51Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.003.6%1st Place
-
11.33Tufts University2.153.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Maddie Hawkins | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Ciara Rodriguez-Horan | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.8% |
| Aidan Hoogland | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Michael Ehnot | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.8% |
| Javier Garcon | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.9% |
| Teddy Nicolosi | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Michelle Lahrkamp | 8.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Gray Benson | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.2% |
| Scott Mais | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| William Bedford | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 20.2% |
| Colman Schofield | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Chris Kayda | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% |
| Jack Murphy | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% |
| Robert Hunter | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% |
| Charles Carraway | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 11.2% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.