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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.50+8.03vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University1.69+7.39vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.64+1.44vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.26+5.58vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.86+1.71vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.80+0.92vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.10-1.19vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+2.12vs Predicted
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9Salve Regina University1.31-0.09vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.55-1.98vs Predicted
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11Boston College1.61-3.04vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island0.70-0.72vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.27-0.28vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-1.67vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.20-5.08vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University1.49-7.91vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College-0.27-2.40vs Predicted
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18Olin College of Engineering-0.69-2.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.03Tufts University1.504.6%1st Place
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9.39Northeastern University1.694.1%1st Place
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4.44Stanford University2.6417.5%1st Place
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9.58North Carolina State University1.264.2%1st Place
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6.71Yale University1.869.3%1st Place
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6.92University of Rhode Island1.808.2%1st Place
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5.81Dartmouth College2.1011.9%1st Place
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10.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.083.9%1st Place
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8.91Salve Regina University1.315.6%1st Place
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8.02Brown University1.555.8%1st Place
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7.96Boston College1.616.5%1st Place
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11.28University of Rhode Island0.702.9%1st Place
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12.72Connecticut College0.271.7%1st Place
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12.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.492.1%1st Place
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9.92Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.203.3%1st Place
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8.09Northwestern University1.497.2%1st Place
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14.6Dartmouth College-0.270.8%1st Place
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15.19Olin College of Engineering-0.690.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Sheridan | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| Hannah Freeman | 17.5% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Sowa | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| Megan Grimes | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Declan Botwinick | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Young | 11.9% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.4% |
| Nils Tullberg | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Emily Mueller | 5.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| Graham Ness | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| John Mason | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 4.8% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 7.8% |
| Julia Wyatt | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Shea Smith | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Rob Mailley | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 11.5% | 19.1% | 28.5% |
| Alexander Miller | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 19.2% | 38.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.