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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island1.80+5.75vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.55+5.81vs Predicted
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3Yale University1.86+3.68vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+5.43vs Predicted
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5North Carolina State University0.91+7.64vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University1.31+2.92vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.50+1.89vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.20+1.37vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49+3.32vs Predicted
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10Stanford University2.64-5.82vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.10-5.15vs Predicted
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12Northwestern University1.49-4.04vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.69-3.62vs Predicted
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14Boston College1.61-6.53vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island0.70-3.86vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.34-3.35vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College-0.27-2.54vs Predicted
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18Olin College of Engineering-0.69-2.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.75University of Rhode Island1.808.8%1st Place
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7.81Brown University1.555.8%1st Place
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6.68Yale University1.868.6%1st Place
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9.43U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.094.5%1st Place
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12.64North Carolina State University0.911.4%1st Place
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8.92Salve Regina University1.314.7%1st Place
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8.89Tufts University1.505.1%1st Place
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9.37Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.205.1%1st Place
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12.32U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.492.0%1st Place
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4.18Stanford University2.6417.8%1st Place
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5.85Dartmouth College2.1011.2%1st Place
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7.96Northwestern University1.495.9%1st Place
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9.38Northeastern University1.694.7%1st Place
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7.47Boston College1.617.9%1st Place
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11.14University of Rhode Island0.703.1%1st Place
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12.65Connecticut College0.341.8%1st Place
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14.46Dartmouth College-0.270.9%1st Place
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15.08Olin College of Engineering-0.690.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Botwinick | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Emily Mueller | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Megan Grimes | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jack Derry | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| Hogan O'Donnell | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 12.0% | 12.5% | 10.0% |
| Nils Tullberg | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Connor Sheridan | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Julia Wyatt | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.2% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 7.5% |
| Hannah Freeman | 17.8% | 17.6% | 14.7% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Young | 11.2% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Graham Ness | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| John Mason | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 4.3% |
| Hailey Pemberton | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 12.8% | 13.0% | 9.8% |
| Rob Mailley | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 19.3% | 25.1% |
| Alexander Miller | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 17.8% | 37.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.