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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.10+4.42vs Predicted
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2Boston College1.61+5.20vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.64+1.08vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.20+4.65vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.50+3.14vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.69+2.68vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+1.80vs Predicted
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8Yale University1.86-1.83vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.49-1.78vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University1.31-1.91vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.34+0.37vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.80-5.69vs Predicted
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13Brown University1.33-4.78vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-2.91vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College-0.27-2.06vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering-0.69-2.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.42Dartmouth College2.1011.9%1st Place
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7.2Boston College1.617.7%1st Place
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4.08Stanford University2.6420.2%1st Place
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8.65Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.204.6%1st Place
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8.14Tufts University1.505.7%1st Place
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8.68Northeastern University1.693.5%1st Place
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8.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.094.2%1st Place
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6.17Yale University1.8610.0%1st Place
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7.22Northwestern University1.496.9%1st Place
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8.09Salve Regina University1.315.5%1st Place
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11.37Connecticut College0.341.7%1st Place
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6.31University of Rhode Island1.809.2%1st Place
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8.22Brown University1.335.0%1st Place
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11.09U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.492.7%1st Place
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12.94Dartmouth College-0.270.9%1st Place
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13.62Olin College of Engineering-0.690.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Young | 11.9% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Graham Ness | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Hannah Freeman | 20.2% | 16.8% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Wyatt | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Connor Sheridan | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 1.0% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 1.2% |
| Jack Derry | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| Megan Grimes | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Nils Tullberg | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 0.8% |
| Hailey Pemberton | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 17.8% | 10.8% |
| Declan Botwinick | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 13.8% | 10.9% |
| Rob Mailley | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 13.9% | 19.6% | 27.6% |
| Alexander Miller | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 9.7% | 17.7% | 42.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.