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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.10+4.52vs Predicted
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2Yale University1.86+4.34vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.80+3.34vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.09+4.72vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University1.31+3.20vs Predicted
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6Stanford University2.64-2.07vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.20+1.89vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.50+0.13vs Predicted
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9Northwestern University1.49-1.68vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.27+1.37vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-0.03vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.69-3.51vs Predicted
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13Boston College1.61-5.84vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.33-6.01vs Predicted
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15Olin College of Engineering-0.69-1.39vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College-0.27-2.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.52Dartmouth College2.1011.7%1st Place
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6.34Yale University1.868.8%1st Place
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6.34University of Rhode Island1.809.7%1st Place
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8.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.094.2%1st Place
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8.2Salve Regina University1.315.2%1st Place
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3.93Stanford University2.6420.5%1st Place
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8.89Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.204.3%1st Place
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8.13Tufts University1.505.6%1st Place
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7.32Northwestern University1.496.8%1st Place
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11.37Connecticut College0.271.9%1st Place
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10.97U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.492.3%1st Place
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8.49Northeastern University1.694.5%1st Place
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7.16Boston College1.617.6%1st Place
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7.99Brown University1.335.6%1st Place
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13.61Olin College of Engineering-0.690.2%1st Place
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13.02Dartmouth College-0.271.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Young | 11.7% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Megan Grimes | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Declan Botwinick | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Jack Derry | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| Nils Tullberg | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Hannah Freeman | 20.5% | 18.4% | 13.8% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julia Wyatt | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 1.6% |
| Connor Sheridan | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Shea Smith | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 15.2% | 16.5% | 10.5% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 9.2% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Graham Ness | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Alexander Miller | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 19.1% | 42.4% |
| Rob Mailley | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 12.7% | 20.4% | 28.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.