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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.84+3.33vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.27+3.63vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76+4.26vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.09vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College2.20+1.16vs Predicted
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6University of Virginia2.39-0.42vs Predicted
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7Hampton University2.11-0.96vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University2.54-2.86vs Predicted
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9University of Buffalo0.75+0.91vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida1.25-1.28vs Predicted
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11Hampton University-0.35+1.07vs Predicted
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12Villanova University-0.57+0.37vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University-0.24-1.23vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University2.21-8.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.33Washington College2.840.2%1st Place
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5.63Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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7.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.1%1st Place
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4.09St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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6.16Eckerd College2.200.1%1st Place
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5.58University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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6.04Hampton University2.110.1%1st Place
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5.14Jacksonville University2.540.1%1st Place
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9.91University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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8.72University of South Florida1.250.0%1st Place
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12.07Hampton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.37Villanova University-0.570.0%1st Place
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11.77North Carolina State University-0.240.0%1st Place
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5.92Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Bailey | 15.2% | 17.3% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Charles Skord | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 17.0% | 16.4% | 14.4% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Erik Brydges | 6.4% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 10.5% | 7.6% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 8.0% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ian Ikeda | 12.6% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rory Mess | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 12.4% | 19.8% | 20.7% | 11.0% | 4.3% |
| Dean Nixon | 3.0% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 14.2% | 15.8% | 11.7% | 5.6% | 1.7% |
| Jela-Ni McCarthy | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 5.7% | 8.4% | 16.9% | 29.4% | 29.0% |
| Alex Heid | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 17.1% | 23.9% | 39.4% |
| Matthew Dockstader | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 11.6% | 19.0% | 26.3% | 25.1% |
| Austin Powers | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.