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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+7.86vs Predicted
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2University of Michigan1.06+8.73vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.98+4.79vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston1.97+3.23vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University1.55+3.91vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.10+0.93vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.42+0.97vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.60+0.47vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.68-0.83vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.26+0.13vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.71+0.47vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College2.08-5.00vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.65-4.77vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.57-5.08vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.72-2.67vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida0.25-1.82vs Predicted
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17Eckerd College0.90-5.38vs Predicted
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18University of Miami0.84-5.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.544.6%1st Place
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10.73University of Michigan1.063.7%1st Place
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7.79Fordham University1.987.5%1st Place
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7.23College of Charleston1.978.3%1st Place
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8.91Jacksonville University1.555.1%1st Place
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6.93Harvard University2.109.4%1st Place
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7.97SUNY Maritime College0.428.2%1st Place
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8.47University of Wisconsin1.607.0%1st Place
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8.17Cornell University1.685.9%1st Place
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10.13University of Rhode Island1.264.3%1st Place
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11.47University of Vermont0.713.9%1st Place
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7.0Bowdoin College2.088.9%1st Place
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8.23Boston University1.656.6%1st Place
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8.92Old Dominion University1.576.8%1st Place
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12.33Hampton University0.722.5%1st Place
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14.18University of South Florida0.251.1%1st Place
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11.62Eckerd College0.902.7%1st Place
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12.05University of Miami0.843.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Sawin | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Sherman Thompson | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.2% |
| Porter Kavle | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Max Anker | 8.3% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Matthew King | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Cordelia Burn | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Nick Chisari | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Zachary Champney | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 3.9% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% |
| Christopher Lukens | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Micky Munns | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 15.2% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 15.8% | 31.1% |
| Griffin Richardson | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 9.1% |
| Zachary Ward | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 13.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.