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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Eckerd College2.20+4.98vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia2.39+3.36vs Predicted
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3Hampton University2.11+3.27vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University2.21+2.12vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76+2.38vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.54-0.81vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University2.27-1.38vs Predicted
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8Washington College2.84-3.60vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida1.25-0.36vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo0.75-0.07vs Predicted
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11Hampton University-0.35+1.08vs Predicted
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12Villanova University-0.57+0.35vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University-0.24-1.25vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-10.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.98Eckerd College2.200.1%1st Place
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5.36University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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6.27Hampton University2.110.1%1st Place
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6.12Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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7.38U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.0%1st Place
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5.19Jacksonville University2.540.1%1st Place
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5.62Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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4.4Washington College2.840.2%1st Place
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8.64University of South Florida1.250.0%1st Place
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9.93University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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12.08Hampton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.35Villanova University-0.570.0%1st Place
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11.75North Carolina State University-0.240.0%1st Place
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3.92St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Brydges | 6.4% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 10.2% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Austin Powers | 6.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Charles Skord | 3.7% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Ian Ikeda | 12.0% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 9.4% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 16.3% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dean Nixon | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 17.2% | 15.2% | 10.8% | 5.7% | 1.0% |
| Rory Mess | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 11.5% | 19.7% | 18.4% | 13.3% | 4.4% |
| Jela-Ni McCarthy | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 9.1% | 16.5% | 29.7% | 29.2% |
| Alex Heid | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 3.8% | 7.6% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 39.5% |
| Matthew Dockstader | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 5.4% | 11.2% | 19.7% | 25.1% | 25.4% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 19.9% | 15.8% | 14.2% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.