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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hampton University0.72+11.63vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College0.42+6.03vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.68+5.41vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.57+4.89vs Predicted
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5University of Miami0.84+7.21vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin1.60+2.56vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.08-0.05vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University1.55+1.39vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.65-0.67vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston1.97-2.73vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54-1.94vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.98-4.06vs Predicted
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13Harvard University2.10-6.06vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.06-2.70vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.54-5.89vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida0.25-1.84vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.71-5.43vs Predicted
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18University of Rhode Island1.26-7.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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12.63Hampton University0.721.9%1st Place
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8.03SUNY Maritime College0.428.6%1st Place
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8.41Cornell University1.686.5%1st Place
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8.89Old Dominion University1.575.8%1st Place
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12.21University of Miami0.842.2%1st Place
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8.56University of Wisconsin1.606.0%1st Place
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6.95Bowdoin College2.089.8%1st Place
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9.39Jacksonville University1.555.4%1st Place
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8.33Boston University1.655.8%1st Place
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7.27College of Charleston1.978.8%1st Place
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9.06U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.546.2%1st Place
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7.94Fordham University1.986.6%1st Place
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6.94Harvard University2.108.9%1st Place
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11.3University of Michigan1.062.9%1st Place
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9.11University of South Florida1.545.8%1st Place
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14.16University of South Florida0.251.4%1st Place
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11.57University of Vermont0.713.2%1st Place
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10.26University of Rhode Island1.264.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefano Palamara | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 17.5% |
| Nick Chisari | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| J.J. Smith | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Zachary Ward | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 12.8% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 1.0% |
| Christopher Lukens | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Matthew King | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% |
| Micky Munns | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Max Anker | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Lucas Sawin | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Cordelia Burn | 8.9% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Sherman Thompson | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.3% |
| Eden Nykamp | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 10.3% | 13.8% | 33.1% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 9.3% |
| Zachary Champney | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.