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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.68+7.38vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.08+5.15vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston1.97+4.21vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin1.60+4.28vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+4.14vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.26+4.54vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.42+1.08vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.71+3.46vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.98-1.10vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan1.06+1.04vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.65-2.56vs Predicted
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12University of Miami0.84+0.24vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.54-3.89vs Predicted
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14Harvard University2.10-7.08vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.57-6.03vs Predicted
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16University of South Florida0.25-1.77vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.72-4.34vs Predicted
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18Jacksonville University1.55-8.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.38Cornell University1.687.1%1st Place
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7.15Bowdoin College2.088.1%1st Place
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7.21College of Charleston1.978.2%1st Place
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8.28University of Wisconsin1.606.7%1st Place
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9.14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.545.0%1st Place
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10.54University of Rhode Island1.264.0%1st Place
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8.08SUNY Maritime College0.427.2%1st Place
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11.46University of Vermont0.713.1%1st Place
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7.9Fordham University1.987.8%1st Place
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11.04University of Michigan1.063.6%1st Place
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8.44Boston University1.655.9%1st Place
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12.24University of Miami0.842.3%1st Place
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9.11University of South Florida1.545.2%1st Place
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6.92Harvard University2.108.7%1st Place
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8.97Old Dominion University1.576.3%1st Place
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14.23University of South Florida0.251.9%1st Place
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12.66Hampton University0.722.4%1st Place
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9.25Jacksonville University1.556.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Smith | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Christopher Lukens | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Max Anker | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Lucas Sawin | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| Zachary Champney | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 4.3% |
| Nick Chisari | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.4% |
| Porter Kavle | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Sherman Thompson | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 7.2% |
| Micky Munns | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Zachary Ward | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 13.6% |
| Eden Nykamp | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.3% |
| Cordelia Burn | 8.7% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 1.9% |
| Chloe Sweeting | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 14.5% | 33.9% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 16.4% |
| Matthew King | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.