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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.71+3.60vs Predicted
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2University of Virginia2.39+3.29vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76+4.23vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University2.21+2.02vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.90vs Predicted
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6Hampton University2.11+0.38vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University2.54-2.15vs Predicted
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8Eckerd College2.20-2.01vs Predicted
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9University of South Florida1.25-0.36vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.27-4.13vs Predicted
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11University of Buffalo0.75-1.11vs Predicted
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12Hampton University-0.35+0.07vs Predicted
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13Villanova University-0.57-0.71vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University-0.24-2.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.6Washington College2.710.1%1st Place
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5.29University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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7.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.1%1st Place
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6.02Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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4.1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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6.38Hampton University2.110.1%1st Place
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4.85Jacksonville University2.540.1%1st Place
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5.99Eckerd College2.200.1%1st Place
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8.64University of South Florida1.250.0%1st Place
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5.87Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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9.89University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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12.07Hampton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.29Villanova University-0.570.0%1st Place
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11.77North Carolina State University-0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Nunn | 14.5% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 10.6% | 12.7% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Charles Skord | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Austin Powers | 7.6% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 16.2% | 15.3% | 16.9% | 12.8% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 6.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ian Ikeda | 13.2% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Erik Brydges | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Dean Nixon | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 12.5% | 15.3% | 16.1% | 11.3% | 5.0% | 1.6% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 8.9% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Rory Mess | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 19.7% | 18.3% | 13.2% | 3.9% |
| Jela-Ni McCarthy | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 9.6% | 18.7% | 26.3% | 30.3% |
| Alex Heid | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 7.5% | 15.2% | 22.6% | 40.5% |
| Matthew Dockstader | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 8.5% | 20.1% | 28.6% | 23.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.