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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.71+3.59vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University2.27+3.64vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.93vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College2.20+2.07vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University2.21+1.15vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University2.54-0.83vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia2.39-1.71vs Predicted
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8University of Buffalo0.75+1.73vs Predicted
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9Hampton University2.11-2.67vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76-2.67vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.25-2.35vs Predicted
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12Hampton University-0.35+0.05vs Predicted
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13Villanova University-0.57-0.72vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University-0.24-2.22vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.59Washington College2.710.1%1st Place
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5.64Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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3.93St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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6.07Eckerd College2.200.1%1st Place
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6.15Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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5.17Jacksonville University2.540.1%1st Place
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5.29University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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9.73University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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6.33Hampton University2.110.1%1st Place
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7.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.1%1st Place
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8.65University of South Florida1.250.0%1st Place
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12.05Hampton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.28Villanova University-0.570.0%1st Place
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11.78North Carolina State University-0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Nunn | 14.2% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 9.8% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 18.8% | 17.6% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Brydges | 7.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ian Ikeda | 11.6% | 10.1% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 11.5% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Rory Mess | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 12.7% | 16.8% | 19.9% | 11.9% | 4.6% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Charles Skord | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 4.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| Dean Nixon | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 17.2% | 11.6% | 5.5% | 1.3% |
| Jela-Ni McCarthy | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 19.1% | 27.2% | 30.0% |
| Alex Heid | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 16.2% | 22.7% | 39.8% |
| Matthew Dockstader | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 12.0% | 17.5% | 28.4% | 23.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.