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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.71+3.64vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University2.21+3.78vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University2.27+2.80vs Predicted
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4Eckerd College2.20+2.04vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98-0.90vs Predicted
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6University of South Florida1.25+2.66vs Predicted
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7Hampton University2.11-0.99vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76-0.83vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia2.39-3.43vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo0.75-0.07vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University2.54-5.84vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University-0.24-0.12vs Predicted
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13Hampton University-0.35-1.06vs Predicted
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14Villanova University-0.57-1.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.64Washington College2.710.1%1st Place
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5.78Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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5.8Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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6.04Eckerd College2.200.1%1st Place
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4.1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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8.66University of South Florida1.250.0%1st Place
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6.01Hampton University2.110.1%1st Place
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7.17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.1%1st Place
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5.57University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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9.93University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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5.16Jacksonville University2.540.1%1st Place
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11.88North Carolina State University-0.240.0%1st Place
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11.94Hampton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.31Villanova University-0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Nunn | 13.9% | 13.1% | 15.4% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 9.3% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Erik Brydges | 7.0% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 16.2% | 17.2% | 15.3% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dean Nixon | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 15.8% | 16.5% | 11.0% | 6.2% | 1.1% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 8.5% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Charles Skord | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Craven | 9.9% | 8.9% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Rory Mess | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 11.6% | 20.4% | 18.6% | 11.4% | 5.2% |
| Ian Ikeda | 12.8% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Dockstader | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 20.6% | 26.0% | 26.0% |
| Jela-Ni McCarthy | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 8.9% | 19.2% | 26.3% | 29.0% |
| Alex Heid | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 14.5% | 25.1% | 38.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.