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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University2.21+4.96vs Predicted
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2Jacksonville University2.54+2.95vs Predicted
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3University of Virginia2.39+2.52vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+0.04vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University2.27+0.94vs Predicted
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6Hampton University2.11+0.38vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College2.20-1.14vs Predicted
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8University of Buffalo0.75+1.74vs Predicted
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9Washington College2.84-4.54vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76-2.66vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.25-2.32vs Predicted
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12Hampton University-0.35+0.08vs Predicted
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13North Carolina State University-0.24-1.23vs Predicted
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14Villanova University-0.57-1.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.96Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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4.95Jacksonville University2.540.1%1st Place
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5.52University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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4.04St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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5.94Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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6.38Hampton University2.110.1%1st Place
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5.86Eckerd College2.200.1%1st Place
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9.74University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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4.46Washington College2.840.2%1st Place
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7.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.1%1st Place
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8.68University of South Florida1.250.0%1st Place
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12.08Hampton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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11.77North Carolina State University-0.240.0%1st Place
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12.29Villanova University-0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Powers | 8.6% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Ian Ikeda | 12.2% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 17.3% | 18.5% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 6.9% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 12.3% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Erik Brydges | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Rory Mess | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 17.2% | 19.4% | 11.6% | 5.0% |
| Ryan Bailey | 15.5% | 13.8% | 12.9% | 11.3% | 14.2% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Skord | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 15.2% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Dean Nixon | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 15.5% | 15.8% | 12.7% | 5.2% | 1.3% |
| Jela-Ni McCarthy | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 8.7% | 18.0% | 27.5% | 30.2% |
| Matthew Dockstader | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 10.0% | 20.6% | 26.1% | 25.1% |
| Alex Heid | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 8.4% | 14.6% | 25.1% | 37.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.