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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.76+6.19vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+1.85vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University2.21+3.01vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.84+0.38vs Predicted
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5Jacksonville University2.54+0.25vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University2.27-0.07vs Predicted
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7Eckerd College2.20-1.17vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia2.39-2.51vs Predicted
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9Hampton University2.11-2.65vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo0.75-0.05vs Predicted
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11University of South Florida1.25-2.34vs Predicted
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12North Carolina State University-0.24-0.11vs Predicted
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13Hampton University-0.35-1.05vs Predicted
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14Villanova University-0.57-1.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.19U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.760.0%1st Place
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3.85St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.2%1st Place
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6.01Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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4.38Washington College2.840.1%1st Place
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5.25Jacksonville University2.540.1%1st Place
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5.93Old Dominion University2.270.1%1st Place
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5.83Eckerd College2.200.1%1st Place
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5.49University of Virginia2.390.1%1st Place
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6.35Hampton University2.110.1%1st Place
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9.95University of Buffalo0.750.0%1st Place
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8.66University of South Florida1.250.0%1st Place
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11.89North Carolina State University-0.240.0%1st Place
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11.95Hampton University-0.350.0%1st Place
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12.3Villanova University-0.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Skord | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Jonathan Lutz | 19.6% | 16.8% | 16.1% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Bailey | 13.4% | 17.5% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Ikeda | 9.4% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Lounsbury | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Erik Brydges | 9.7% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Craven | 11.5% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Giuditta Di Laghi | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Rory Mess | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 19.4% | 18.4% | 12.2% | 5.2% |
| Dean Nixon | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 16.0% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 5.3% | 1.3% |
| Matthew Dockstader | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 12.1% | 19.1% | 26.0% | 26.0% |
| Jela-Ni McCarthy | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 9.5% | 19.4% | 25.7% | 28.8% |
| Alex Heid | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 14.7% | 25.4% | 38.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.