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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.06+3.52vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+1.39vs Predicted
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3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.48+3.21vs Predicted
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4Cornell University2.48+2.39vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy3.37-1.07vs Predicted
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6Colgate University1.24+4.15vs Predicted
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7University of Rochester0.44+5.41vs Predicted
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8Princeton University1.50+1.15vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology2.75-3.55vs Predicted
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10Ocean County College1.73-1.42vs Predicted
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11Hamilton College0.75+0.55vs Predicted
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12University of Rochester0.44+0.41vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-0.14+0.70vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.99-6.36vs Predicted
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15Queen's University1.19-4.84vs Predicted
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16U. S. Military Academy0.90-4.75vs Predicted
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17Rutgers University0.80-5.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.52SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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3.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
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6.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.480.1%1st Place
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6.39Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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3.93U. S. Naval Academy3.370.2%1st Place
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10.15Colgate University1.240.0%1st Place
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12.41University of Rochester0.440.0%1st Place
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9.15Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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5.45Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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8.58Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
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11.55Hamilton College0.750.0%1st Place
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12.41University of Rochester0.440.0%1st Place
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13.7Penn State University-0.140.0%1st Place
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7.64Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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10.16Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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11.25U. S. Military Academy0.900.0%1st Place
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11.53Rutgers University0.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Steel | 14.6% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Kana | 24.6% | 18.1% | 17.1% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Reilly | 7.7% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 17.4% | 17.5% | 15.1% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Swift | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Freedman | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 13.4% | 20.3% | 19.4% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 9.9% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Schippe | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Julie Webster | 1.7% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 15.0% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Freedman | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 13.4% | 20.3% | 19.4% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Snyder | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 15.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 3.8% | 4.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Heather Richardson | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Lovo | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 10.4% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 14.0% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| Ross Nuechterlein | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 14.0% | 9.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.