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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+2.35vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.48+4.22vs Predicted
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3Colgate University1.24+7.04vs Predicted
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4Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+1.62vs Predicted
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5Columbia University1.99+2.67vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.37-2.04vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.48-0.70vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College3.06-3.48vs Predicted
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9Queen's University1.19+1.20vs Predicted
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10University of Rochester0.44+2.45vs Predicted
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11Ocean County College1.73-2.49vs Predicted
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12Princeton University1.50-2.77vs Predicted
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13Penn State University-0.14+0.74vs Predicted
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14U. S. Military Academy0.90-2.97vs Predicted
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15Rutgers University0.80-3.47vs Predicted
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16Hamilton College0.75-4.37vs Predicted
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17University of Rochester0.44-4.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
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6.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.480.1%1st Place
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10.04Colgate University1.240.0%1st Place
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5.62Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
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7.67Columbia University1.990.0%1st Place
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3.96U. S. Naval Academy3.370.2%1st Place
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6.3Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
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4.52SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
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10.2Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
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12.45University of Rochester0.440.0%1st Place
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8.51Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
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9.23Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
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13.74Penn State University-0.140.0%1st Place
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11.03U. S. Military Academy0.900.0%1st Place
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11.53Rutgers University0.800.0%1st Place
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11.63Hamilton College0.750.0%1st Place
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12.45University of Rochester0.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Kana | 24.6% | 18.0% | 17.6% | 13.2% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Reilly | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Swift | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 7.8% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 3.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 16.9% | 16.1% | 18.1% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 14.0% | 14.9% | 12.4% | 11.7% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Heather Richardson | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Freedman | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 19.5% | 18.9% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Schippe | 3.4% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Snyder | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 10.1% | 16.8% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Lovo | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| Ross Nuechterlein | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 9.8% | 0.0% |
| Julie Webster | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 15.0% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Freedman | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 6.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 14.5% | 19.5% | 18.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.