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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+8.21vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.74+4.26vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.97+10.52vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont2.96+5.25vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+1.59vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42+1.42vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College3.21+1.28vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island3.02+1.01vs Predicted
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9Harvard University2.58+1.97vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University2.87+0.04vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.20-2.53vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.38-4.01vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida2.24-0.84vs Predicted
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14Boston College2.97-5.02vs Predicted
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15Boston University3.42-7.67vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.09-3.06vs Predicted
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17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45-5.42vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.51-6.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.21St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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6.26Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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13.52Cornell University1.970.0%1st Place
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9.25University of Vermont2.960.1%1st Place
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6.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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7.42Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.1%1st Place
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8.28Dartmouth College3.210.1%1st Place
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9.01University of Rhode Island3.020.1%1st Place
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10.97Harvard University2.580.0%1st Place
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10.04Old Dominion University2.870.1%1st Place
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8.47College of Charleston3.200.1%1st Place
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7.99Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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12.16University of South Florida2.240.0%1st Place
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8.98Boston College2.970.1%1st Place
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7.33Boston University3.420.1%1st Place
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12.94Roger Williams University2.090.0%1st Place
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11.58Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.0%1st Place
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11.01Bowdoin College2.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolyn Smith | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Marlena Fauer | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Howes | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 14.8% | 24.5% |
| Amina Brown | 5.4% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% |
| Nikole Barnes | 9.9% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Hanna Vincent | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Sarah Williams | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Chanel Miller | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| Sophie Bermudez | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% |
| Corina Radtke | 5.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 3.5% |
| Grace Lucas | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 1.3% |
| Alison Knoles | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 13.5% |
| Carolyn Naughton | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.2% |
| Hannah Polster | 8.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Rachel Perry | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 19.2% |
| Brooke Lyon | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.3% |
| Lizzy Hamilton | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.