← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy3.37+2.80vs Predicted
-
2SUNY Maritime College3.06+2.65vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.60+0.42vs Predicted
-
4Cornell University2.48+2.39vs Predicted
-
5Stevens Institute of Technology2.75+0.51vs Predicted
-
6Hamilton College0.75+5.58vs Predicted
-
7Colgate University1.24+3.14vs Predicted
-
8Queen's University1.19+2.20vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Military Academy0.90+2.09vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.48-3.77vs Predicted
-
11Columbia University1.99-3.30vs Predicted
-
12Rutgers University0.80-0.61vs Predicted
-
13Ocean County College1.73-4.55vs Predicted
-
14Princeton University1.50-4.88vs Predicted
-
15University of Rochester0.44-2.50vs Predicted
-
16Penn State University-0.14-2.17vs Predicted
-
17University of Rochester0.44-4.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.8U. S. Naval Academy3.370.2%1st Place
-
4.65SUNY Maritime College3.060.1%1st Place
-
3.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.600.2%1st Place
-
6.39Cornell University2.480.1%1st Place
-
5.51Stevens Institute of Technology2.750.1%1st Place
-
11.58Hamilton College0.750.0%1st Place
-
10.14Colgate University1.240.0%1st Place
-
10.2Queen's University1.190.0%1st Place
-
11.09U. S. Military Academy0.900.0%1st Place
-
6.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy2.480.1%1st Place
-
7.7Columbia University1.990.1%1st Place
-
11.39Rutgers University0.800.0%1st Place
-
8.45Ocean County College1.730.0%1st Place
-
9.12Princeton University1.500.0%1st Place
-
12.5University of Rochester0.440.0%1st Place
-
13.83Penn State University-0.140.0%1st Place
-
12.5University of Rochester0.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 18.8% | 16.5% | 18.0% | 14.1% | 10.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Steel | 14.5% | 14.5% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Kana | 23.5% | 17.6% | 17.5% | 14.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 6.2% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Gerard Tonachel | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julie Webster | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 11.7% | 14.5% | 14.4% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Swift | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| Heather Richardson | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Lovo | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Reilly | 7.0% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Croll | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Ross Nuechterlein | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Schippe | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Gene Merewether | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Freedman | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 21.2% | 18.3% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Snyder | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 11.4% | 16.6% | 42.4% | 0.0% |
| Benjamin Freedman | 0.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 21.2% | 18.3% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.