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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.39+4.17vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.25+3.32vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.73+5.88vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.62+3.51vs Predicted
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5Harvard University2.48+0.03vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College1.18+2.70vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.08+2.60vs Predicted
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8Boston College1.62-0.66vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.40-3.89vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.30-1.45vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.74-4.12vs Predicted
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12Boston University0.40-0.22vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.06-0.41vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University0.69-3.41vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University0.02-2.14vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.24-3.63vs Predicted
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17Maine Maritime Academy-0.76-2.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.17Dartmouth College2.3913.2%1st Place
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5.32Yale University2.2512.3%1st Place
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8.88U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.734.0%1st Place
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7.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.626.3%1st Place
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5.03Harvard University2.4813.4%1st Place
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8.7Bowdoin College1.184.1%1st Place
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9.6Tufts University1.083.8%1st Place
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7.34Boston College1.626.8%1st Place
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5.11Roger Williams University2.4015.0%1st Place
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8.55University of Rhode Island1.304.3%1st Place
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6.88Brown University1.747.0%1st Place
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11.78Boston University0.401.9%1st Place
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12.59Connecticut College0.061.5%1st Place
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10.59Northeastern University0.692.9%1st Place
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12.86Salve Regina University0.021.5%1st Place
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12.37University of Vermont0.241.3%1st Place
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14.73Maine Maritime Academy-0.760.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Satterberg | 13.2% | 11.8% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Dorothy Mendelblatt | 12.3% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Luke Zylinski | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| William Kulas | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 13.4% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ethan Danielson | 4.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Oliver Keeves | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 1.4% |
| tanner krygsveld | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 15.0% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Chwalk | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Cam Spriggs | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter Stewart | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 7.8% |
| Rory Murray | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 16.7% | 12.4% |
| Gavin Hudson | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 3.8% |
| Robert Heath | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 14.5% | 18.6% | 13.7% |
| Caitlin Derby | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 13.2% |
| Alistair Knoblauch | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 9.7% | 16.6% | 45.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.